Nigel Farage wins Clacton by-election but questions remain over finances – live updates

Luke Tryl, UK Director, More in Common, a UK non-profit pollster, said the results from Clacton are a “tale of two numbers” that show both Farage having sustained support from a solid base, and a large number of opponents resolutely opposed to his politics.

He said: “The result is a tale of two numbers. Farage’s raw vote total of 22,000, above his 2024 vote, in an August, semi-uncontested by-election, is impressive, suggesting no diminution of enthusiasm among his supporters, and some new converts.

“But his 63 per cent vote share is at the lower end of expectations, a reminder that his opponents are highly motivated to turn out too, whoever the main challenger is, giving Binface nearly 10,000 votes.

“That doesn’t matter in Clacton, which had the highest combined ‘right’ vote in the country in 2024.

“But in swing seats, where the opposition unites, and the Tories refuse to be squeezed, the ‘anti-Farage’ vote becomes a real problem.

“We saw anti-Reform tactical voting and turnout play out in Makerfield and in Gorton and Denton.

“In our Clacton focus groups we heard both sides. Voters who enthusiastically backed Farage and saw the finance row as an establishment stitch-up, or “no worse than what other politicians do”, but also many on the right, including former Conservative voters, angered by what they saw as an unnecessary by-election and willing to vote, or sit the contest out, in order to send Farage a message.

“That intensity mattered less under Starmer, when the left were more divided.

“But if Andy Burnham manages to unite the left and lead Labour into the next general election, there will be a greater premium on Reform thinking about how to detoxify their brand, both to win back their wavering voters, and to reassure the wider public to avoid mobilising the anti-Farage vote.”