For two hours the playing of the Prime ministerial trump card appeared to be working.
Boris Johnson had declared his support for the deal. A regular trickle of switchers were going the PM’s way. Her 1922 Committee address confirming a faster “Trexit” (Theresa’s exit) timetable provided the deal passed had unlocked around a couple of dozen votes.
And yet it was an illusion. In Belfast the DUP said no, Arlene Foster telling Sky News that preservation of the Union and avoidance of the backstop was more important than Brexit, with the backstop presenting an “unacceptable threat to the integrity of the UK”.
Meanwhile at the post 1922 conclave of the European Research Group things started to get sticky. Steve Baker emotionally pronouncing he was unmoved and wouldn’t be voting for the deal, with the support of 20-30 “Spartans” holding out.
Then back in the Commons chamber, squeezed between the indicative vote debate and the actual results, the debate and vote on formally legally extending the UK law Brexit date beyond the long promised 29 March via a Statutory Instrument.
Not doing so would have caused a legal mess, though not changed the fact of prolonged EU membership.
The Conservatives were on a three-line whip to back it. Amazingly less than half of Conservative MPs obeyed the whip.
Ninety-three voted against. Many others did not vote, although it is unclear whether the abstentions were active ones or permitted.
In any event their number included cabinet ministers Mordaunt, Fox, Cairns, Williamson and Lewis.
Two Dexeu (Department for Exiting the European Union) ministers did not vote for it. And then, incredibly 12 of 18 government whips didn’t obey their own whip.
I reported that at Monday’s crisis Cabinet meeting a request for a free vote was discussed for this reason. It is difficult to see how authority is re-established when the whips office itself is lost.
The indicative vote process was notable for not delivering an option for anything. But beneath those numbers the big losers were forms of Norway-style compromise, and hard Brexit/ No Deal options, crushed by bigger majorities than the PM’s deal.
Conversely the most Aye votes were for a “confirmatory public ballot” and a customs union, which was four swing votes from a majority.
Clearly the Government spin will be that only its Withdrawal Deal can save the UK from the chaos of the Letwin tyranny.
But there was some valuable information indicated. A customs union has close to a majority. A referendum did far far better than expected thanks to Labour deciding to whip in favour.
Twenty-seven Labour MPs rebelled against. It lost by 27.
But some of public vote attached to another option can command a majority in the next fortnight. This in fact could be the most potent line of attack for the PM to try to squeeze a majority.
But ultimately there is a route for her deal too when matched to a referendum. With the number of Tory rebels backing the process now up to 33, it is far from over.
What looks tricky now though is the strategy of pushing Tory Eurosceptics to back the deal on the basis they get to control phase two the negotiation.
Already Remainer former Tory ministers are imploring Labour rebels to view a vote for the deal as a vote for a Boris Johnson/ Raab / Rees-Mogg Brexit. If you win round Boris by dangling the Number 10 keys, it would appear to make persuading Labour switchers to get the deal over the line very hopeful indeed.
All that before Speaker John Bercow continues shutting down back routes for the government to reintroduce its Meaningful Vote on Friday. A last minute win here is far from certain. the PM’s sacrifice may have been in vain.
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