The only way that Rishi Sunak could hope to even get to base camp in narrowing Labour’s large poll lead was to squeeze the Reform vote, virtually all of which is coming from those who voted Conservative in 2019.
In 2019, Reform’s predecessor, the Brexit Party, did not stand in Conservative-held constituencies, This time, Reform are standing virtually everywhere in England, Scotland and Wales.
This means Reform is likely to take most votes away from the Conservatives in seats that Rishi Sunak’s party is trying to defend.
Rather than the Tories making progress, things are actually going backwards, not least, of course, because of Nigel Farage’s decision to fight this campaign.
The former UKIP and Brexit Party leader previously said he would not stand in the election but on 3 June announced he would be Reform’s candidate in Clacton, as well as take over as the party’s leader.
Almost instantly this resulted in a three-point increase in the party’s poll support, an advance that now seem to be even a little higher.
But Reform is not the only party advancing in the polls.
Now, the Liberal Democrats, with a 12% rating, are also up a couple of points.
This may partly explain why Labour’s support is down.
So the campaign has now made a difference.
And perhaps in focusing their attacks on each other both the Conservatives and Labour have paid too little attention to the potential challenge from the smaller parties.
We will have to wait and see if that now changes.
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